A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
